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SUMMARY:INCOSE: MBSE - Leverage Monte Carlo Simulation to Plan Uncertain Systems Development
DESCRIPTION:View this email in your browser\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nINCOSE North Star Spring Tutorial: “MBSE – Leverage Monte Carlo Simulation to Plan Uncertain Systems Development”\nSystems analysis methods include the simulation of logical\, network-based models.  If introduced early in systems life cycle planning\, they can be more effective.  This tutorial advances the case that earlier model-based planning to handle uncertain conditions is likely to improve MBSE. An afternoon hands-on experience clinic with computerized models transfers skills and knowledge. \nPresenter: Keith Hornbacher\, MBA (Biography)\nDate:  Friday\, May 9\, 2025\nTime:  8:00 am – 4:00 pm\nLocation:  Medtronic OHQ; 710 Medtronic Pkwy NE\, Minneapolis\, MN 55432; Room – OHQ EDU LE 1B  \nKey Words: Systems Analysis\, Simulation\, Risk Management\, Artificial Intelligence (AI) \nApplicable to: New product development (medical devices; technical innovations; aerospace/ defense); Large infrastructure development projects; Programmatic/project Life Cycle Cost analysis; Capital expansion decisions (plants\, construction); Executive decision making across program lifecycle phases. \nGoal: Increase participants’ confidence to handle uncertainty in planning systems Portfolio\, Program\, and Project Life Cycles using Monte Carlo Simulation of logical networks \nObjectives: \n\nMorning: Understand the SE System Analysis and Risk Management Processes\, especially the activity “Analyze Risks”[1]\n\nClarify differences among types of uncertainty and risk (threats\, opportunities)\nAddress uncertainty early enough in programmatic life cycles to enable favorable results\nLearn to collect quality data\, recognize personal biases\, address organizational risk attitudes; all considered in context of AI’s emerging role\nCommunicating uncertain results to those in power who demand\, “Just give me the number!”\nDemonstrate how Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of networked Program/project plans can advance implementation of MBSE beyond deterministic\, qualitative thinking.\n\n\nAfternoon: Demonstration and Clinic using MCS software[2]\n\nDemonstration and executive level overview of key features (computer not required)\nClinic: Hands on computer lab\n\nExperiment with simulation of logical network-based development plans in a workshop using world class MCS methods\, tools; use case examples (participants may supply)\nLeverage Artificial Intelligence (AI) in MBSE context using simulation\nImpact and handling Trade-off Analyses\nQuantitative analysis of plans\, technical/cost/schedule risk using MCS\n\n\n\n\n\n\n[1] References include Figure 2.27 IPO diagram for Risk Management process and Figure 2.46 IPO diagram for System Analysis\, SYSTEMS ENGINEERING HANDBOOK\, Fifth Edition INCOSE–TP–2003–002–05 2023; ISO-31000 (2018); ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288 (2023); AACE International Recommended Practices; Project Management Institute (PMI); US General Accountability Office (GAO) Guides; NASA Handbooks and Guides\n\n[2] Tools: Participants will receive instructions on downloading free personal copies of the demo software in advance of the tutorial and an invitation to a one hour Zoom session hosted by Mr. Hornbacher to test the software.  If participants have a candidate case study for review\, its suitability will be considered before the clinic.\n\n\nCost to attend: \n\nNonmembers – $325.00\n(includes INCOSE Regular Individual Member – $175.00)\nINCOSE Members – $150.00 (FULL membership only\, excludes CAB memberships)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nLearn More & Register\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nPlease reach out to northstar@incose.net if you have any questions. \nThank you\,\nINCOSE North Star
URL:https://www.mfests.org/event/incose-mbse-leverage-monte-carlo-simulation-to-plan-uncertain-systems-development/
LOCATION:Medtronic OHQ\, 710 Medtronic Parkway NE\, Minneapolis\, Minnesota\, 55432
CATEGORIES:INCOSE
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